Buckley Vs. Usman Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight sluggers Joaquin Buckley vs. Kamaru Usman will clash TONIGHT (Sat., June 14, 2025) inside State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia at UFC Atlanta.

Buckley is in the midst of a hunting tour. “New Mansa” is savaging the old guard of the Welterweight establishment, and there’s no bigger trophy than Kamaru Usman. Sure, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is riding a three-fight losing streak, but have we forgotten all other context? Two of those losses came to Leon Edwards, and one was that all-time desperation Hail May head kick in a fight Usman was generally dominating. Then, he stepped off the couch on short-notice to take a round off Khamzat up a weight class! There are reasons to be concerned about Usman’s injuries and long layoff, but in the Octagon, he still demonstrated the skills of a world-class fighter last we checked.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Buckley vs. Usman Betting Odds

Joaquin Buckley victory: -265
Joaquin Buckley via TKO/KO/DQ: +155
Joaquin Buckley via submission: +2250
Joaquin Buckley via decision: +185
Kamaru Usman victory: +215
Kamaru Usman via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
Kamaru Usman via submission: +2500
Kamaru Usman via decision: +550
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Buckley Wins

Buckley is a powerhouse. He was dropping foes at 185-pounds while being desperately undersized, but now that he’s not forced to leap forward by absurd height and reach disadvantages, he’s flooring opponents with shorter shots. Better yet, his physicality and takedown defense — both likely to be tested here — have held up particularly well since moving to 170-pounds.

Both of these men do much better work on the front foot, but they impose themselves in different ways. Usman’s combination of raw strength and relentless cardio is legendary, and it allowed him to dominate many top opponents using his wrestling as a vehicle for those physical gifts. Buckley, conversely, hits ungodly hard and dares anyone to trade with him, though he at least hides his aggression behind body-head combinations and a bit of angular footwork.

An important difference here is that Buckley is absolutely smoking people right now, whereas Usman’s current shape is a mystery. Can he still manhandle a strong young Welterweight like Buckley when those knees are held together by duct tape and prayer? What’s the ring rust situation? Buckley needs to find out ASAP, because this is an easy night of work for him if he forces Usman onto the back foot early.

He should be chasing collisions right off the bat, convincing Usman that he has to play the matador. If Buckley steps right into the middle, fires a combo, and shucks off a takedown while he’s at his freshest — consider the message sent! If Usman can trade or throw him to the mat, Buckley has to shift focus and try to use in-and-out movement to capitalize on the speed advantage, but that should be the back up plan.

How Usman Wins

Kamaru Usman is a specimen. You know how Merab Dvalishvili feels vaguely unstoppable right now, a grueling nightmare match up for most anyone? That’s how Usman was for years, but he was wrestling that relentlessly three full weight classes higher. In the process of defending his belt five times, he also developed a shotgun blast of a jab and neat shifting right hand to help round out his game.

The jab is the key to victory here. Maybe five years ago, Usman would’ve been able to bully and wrestle Buckley without any kind of striking success, but that feels unlikely given where both men are at in their career. In order to set up his shots and gain purchase on the wrestling, Usman has to be landing hard shots and earn Buckley’s respect on the feet.

The jab is his best avenue to do so, as Buckley is still prone to bursting straightforward with his head still. He gets away with it because of his speed, feints, and lateral steps, but a single well-timed Usman jab will wobble the knees if Buckley steps into it. Usman’s game is beautiful to behold when it all flows together, but in order for that to happen, he has to find some success standing.

That starts with the jab.

Once the threat of the jab is established, Usman can look to snatch singles. He could also look to jab the body, strand Buckley at distance, and line up that right hand bomb. The threat of both makes it more likely that one will work, and Usman’s success will feed into itself.

Buckley vs. Usman Prediction

It’s really hard to side against youth and momentum.

First and foremost, I like the adjustments Buckley has made to his game. He’s really committed to growing less predictably on the feet, relying on smart shot selection and good movement to set up that power. He’s not blasting people solely because of the drop in weight — there’s genuine improvement there as well. He just showed off his sprawl-and-brawl tactics against Colby Covington to tremendous results, but even at 185-pounds, he was exhausting and hurting bigger men who tried to wrestle him.

Then, there’s the simple fact that Usman is older, has suffered a lot of injuries in his long athletic career, and hasn’t fought in the better part of two years. He should be expected to look worse at 38 years of age, and Buckley is not a man against whom fighters can afford to make mistakes.

Prediction: Buckley via knockout