After winning seven of their last eight league games, Aston Villa have dispelled any of their early-season doubts and are staking their claim as a Champions League contender once again.
Unai Emery’s side enter December in fourth position in the Premier League, while their adventures on the continent see them level at the top of the Europa League table.
However, below the surface, there is plenty to suggest that Villa are in fact pretenders, rather than contenders, for a Champions League place.
We will look at why their worrying underlying data, coupled with a December schedule jam-packed with potential stumbling blocks, could lead to them sliding down the table.
Aston Villa Have the Second Lowest xG in the Premier League
Despite being fourth, only 19th-place Burnley (9.5) have accumulated a lower xG than The Villans (11.6). That means that even lowly Wolves (11.8) have had better quality chances despite not winning a league game so far this season.
With that in mind, it is a minor miracle that Aston Villa are so high up the table after more than a third of the way into the season.
Why Are Aston Villa Not Creating as Many Chances?
Over the past couple of seasons, Villa have heavily relied upon Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers for their creativity in their final third, and with both of them struggling for consistency, Villa are struggling to create chances.
Though many would typically associate Watkins with converting chances, he is also a notable playmaker. The top assister in the 2023/24 Premier League season has tallied double figure assists in all competitions in each of the last two campaigns, but has failed to get one in his first 19 appearances of the season.
The striker’s lack of playmaking this season has been one of the reasons why fans are worried about Watkins’ alarming decline this season.
But Watkins also would also benefit from better service from Villa’s creator-in-chief – Morgan Rogers. Last season’s PFA Young Player of The Year assisted a quarter of Watkins’ 16 league goals in the 24/25 campaign, but a slow start in comparison from the 23-year-old has seen Watkins struggle for chances as a result.
If Unai Emery wants to ramp up the pressure to carve out more clear-cut chances, the likes of Rogers and a rejuvenated Emi Buendia must shoulder more of the creative responsibility.
Aston Villa’s Defensive Record is Their Saving Grace
Villa’s defence has been the reason as to why they are holding firmly onto their Champions League aspirations. The 11 goals they have conceded in their first 13 games is only bettered by league leaders Arsenal (7).
When they have managed to hit the back of the net, it has also often come from distance. Boubacar Kamara’s brilliant long-range winner against Wolves on the 30th November was their ninth of the season.
Though that means that their fanbase will have the tough task of choosing their goal of the season winner, even the most delusional of Aston Villa supporters will admit that is not sustainable throughout an entire campaign.
Aston Villa Have A Gruelling December Schedule
Even though Villa are fourth, they have only accumulated six more points than 14th-place Bournemouth. Given their back-breaking December schedule, there is a real possibility that they will begin to slide down the table.
The Villans have only scored five league goals in the seven away trips they have had so far; only Sunderland (3) and Wolves (1) have scored less away from home.
This is particularly concerning as they prepare to face a Brighton side who have not lost at home so far this season, and the top two – Chelsea and Arsenal – in their away games this month.
Aston Villa’s League Games in December |
|
|---|---|
| Date | Opponent |
| 03/12 | Brighton (A) |
| 06/12 | Arsenal (H) |
| 14/12 | West Ham (H) |
| 21/12 | Manchester United (H) |
| 27/12 | Chelsea (A) |
| 30/12 | Arsenal (A) |
Even at home, Unai Emery would have identified the game against West Ham as a must-win, and will be wary of an iron-clad Arsenal defence and a resurgent Manchester United.
What Happens if Aston Villa Struggle in December?
If Aston Villa have a tough month, Unai Emery may be forced to take a leaf out of Tottenham’s book from the previous campaign in prioritising winning the Europa League over domestic competitions, as a means to qualifying for Europe.
Villa look well on course to finish in the top eight of the league phase after picking up 12 points in their opening five games. Given the fact that Unai Emery is the most successful manager in the competition’s history, that will no doubt be a tempting solution if they slide down the Premier League table.
But they only have to look at who Spurs beat in last season’s final, Manchester United, to see the risks that strategy entails.
Ruben Amorim often rested key players in the league during the latter stages of their Europa League run, which was largely understood by the club’s fanbase, until they lost the final. The lack of European football this campaign has led the Red Devils to lose huge revenues and piled even more pressure onto Amorim.
That will surely be something Emery wants to avoid but may become a necessity if poor results follow.
