Can Bundesliga basement boys Mainz produce the biggest shock of the 2025/26 campaign so far and inflict a first league defeat on Bayern Munich for a second successive season?
Every possible sign points to there being absolutely no chance of it happening, but as everyone knows, anything can happen in football, just like last year.
Will opposites attract again on Sunday?
Languishing at the foot of the Bundesliga standings with only six points (W1, D3, L9) from 13 matches, Mainz are already in free fall this season.
At the other end of the Bundesliga spectrum, defending champions Bayern are currently sitting pretty at the top of the pile with 37 points after yet to taste a domestic defeat in 2025/26.
Anything less than a win for Vincent Kompany’s side on Sunday at the Mewa Arena would not only be considered two dropped points for the defending champions, but also a massive upset. Piling the pressure onto Mainz, Die Nullfünfer haven’t triumphed in the Bundesliga since beating Augsburg 4-1 on 20th September, D2, L7.
However, a spectacular script was played out, as recently as a year ago, when Mainz left an injury-stricken Harry Kane and Co wondering what to say during the post-match conference.
Just like this season, Bayern were unbeaten throughout the 2024/25 campaign before making the journey to the Mewa Arena in December.
Kane is raring to go after missing that unforgettable day
On that remarkable afternoon, Mainz ran out 2-1 winners, courtesy of a brace from Lee Jae-sung. However, only four of Mainz’s winning team from then featured in their last league match against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Those players in question are Kaishū Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Phillipp Mwene, and the aforementioned Jae-Sung.
Mainz’s starting XI against Bayern in December: Zentner; Jenz, Bell, Kohr; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Jae-sung, Burkardt. Subs: Onisiwo, Sieb, Hyun-seok.
Mainz’s starting XI against Borussia Mönchengladbach: Batz; da Costa, Hanche-Olsen, Leitsch; Widmer, Sano, Mwene; Amiri, Jae-sung; Weiper, Moreno Fell. Subs: Nordin, Hollerbach, Veratschnig, Kawasaki.
Jae-Sung could be Mainz’s winner again?
A big concern for Mainz will be that Jae-Sung hasn’t been in the same scoring form he was when celebrating against Bayern, after only scoring a single goal so far this season.
On the other boot, a returning Kane will presumably be leading the visitors’ forward line. Ominously for Mainz, the England international has already netted 22 goals in 19 matches across all competitions.
This kind of form so early in the season surely has to put Kane in the ballon-dor picture already.
But, if you look back to April 2023, Mainz beat Bayern 3-1. Nevertheless, that was in front of their own supporters, not on the winding road down to the Allianz Arena. However, considering the Bundesliga’s bottom side are severely out of form, we cannot really rely on that.
Take a look at Bayern’s starting XI on that forgettable day, compared to the players named on Kompany’s team sheet for his side’s last league match, where they hammered Stuttgart 5-0.
Bayern’s starting XI against Mainz: Peretz; Laimer, Min-Jae, Guerreiro, Pavlović, Kimmich; Musiala, Olise, Sané; Müller. Subs: Tel, Goretzka, Boe
Bayern Munich’s XI against Stuttgart: Urbig; Laimer, Bischof, Min-Jae, Upamecano; Goretzka, Kimmich; Guerreiro, Olise, Díaz; Jackson. Subs: Kane, Stanišić, Pavlović, Itō, Karl
Bayern have one more player than Mainz did from a year ago, with Laimer, Min-Jae, Guerreiro, Kimmich, and Olise all starting.
But the elephant on the pitch is Kane, who won the 2024/25 Bundesliga Golden Boot, and who will be back for the match. Surely, Mainz will have prepared themselves for the in-form striker, who sensationally bagged a hat-trick against Stuttgart despite only coming on in the 60th minute.
The odds are certainly stacked against Mainz
Understandably, the odds are heavily favouring a Bayern Munich win on Sunday. The bookies certainly think that with Mainz a stand-out 30/1 (Betfair) to win, while Bayern are 1/9 (Ladbrokes) to win yet another match this season.
Another factor that doesn’t fall in Mainz’s favour is that the match takes place at the Allianz Arena, not the Mewa Arena. In addition, before last season, Die Nullfünfer have lost all four head-to-head encounters since beating their next opponents in April 2023.
