A BBC Sport analysis report has landed as the latest flashpoint in what is becoming an increasingly nervy Premier League title race – and it asks a question Arsenal fans will not want to sit with heading into the final five games: are the Gunners simply not scoring enough to win this thing?
Arsenal and Manchester City are locked together on 70 points and a +37 goal difference after 33 games. City moved top on Wednesday night – winning 1-0 against Burnley – meaning they now lead on goals scored by three. The Gunners, who spent 209 days at the top of the table, wake up on Saturday in second place for the first time since August.
It is razor thin. And that is exactly the problem.
Rooney’s Warning: Arsenal Need to Stop Nicking 1-0s
Wayne Rooney, speaking on the BBC’s Wayne Rooney podcast, knows better than most what it feels like to lose a title on goal difference. He was in the Manchester United squad that finished second to City in 2011-12 – the Aguero moment, the whole nightmare – and recalled Sir Alex Ferguson constantly telling his players to keep scoring because it might come down to goal difference. It did, that one time.
His verdict on Arsenal’s approach was blunt: they need to stop trying to nick 1-0 wins and go at teams, winning by three or four goals. He still has them as slight favourites – but only if they change their mentality fast.
Almost half of Arsenal’s 21 Premier League wins this season have been by a single goal – ten of them, 48% – the highest percentage by a potential champion since Leicester’s famous 2015-16 title run. The City vs Arsenal title race has reached the point where every narrow win could be a decision Arsenal regret.
The Numbers Don’t Lie – And They Don’t Flatter Arsenal Either
The BBC Sport report leans hard into the stats, and they make uncomfortable reading for the Emirates faithful. Arsenal are averaging just 1.15 open play goals per game this season. Leicester’s record low for open play goals by a title winner is 46 – and Arsenal need nine from five games just to match it. That is not a statistic that screams champions.
Their projected goal difference of +43 at the current rate would be the lowest since Leicester’s joint-record +32. The average Premier League champion finishes on +50. Liverpool lifted the trophy last season with +45. City once hit +79 in a single season. Arsenal are some distance from that standard.
Sport psychologist Phil Johnson, who has worked with Liverpool, Everton and Monaco, offered a sharper diagnosis. He told BBC Sport that when Arsenal went nine points clear, the energy dropped visibly – they were slower, less aggressive in pressing, and less determined off the ball. His assessment was pointed: when a team gets close to the finish line, the brain can relax just enough to let someone else pip you to the post. Mikel Arteta insisting “it’s a new league now” and “everything is still to play for” is the right message – but the performances need to match it.
Five Games Left – Can Arsenal Wake Up in Time?
Arsenal face Newcastle on Saturday – second in the table, pressure cranked up – and the five-game run-in will define whether this squad has the stomach for what Arteta has built them for. Kai Havertz starting against City ahead of Viktor Gyokeres and missing two big chances is the kind of decision that will be dissected all summer if it goes wrong.
Johnson’s parting thought was the most optimistic thing in the whole report: when Arsenal wake up, he said, they can be absolutely phenomenal. The question is whether Saturday is the morning they finally do. We’ll be covering every twist of this title race right to the final day – and you can keep up with the full Premier League picture as the season reaches its climax.
Five games. Three goals between the sides. One title. Arsenal better start scoring.
