Gastelum Vs. Pyfer Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight sluggers Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey at UFC 316.

Just about two months ago, these two were hours away from throwing down in Mexico City when a sudden illness struck down Pyfer. In response, Pyfer blasted the entire country of Mexico and swore to never fight there again. As a “Garden State” native, I hope Pyfer isn’t swilling too much of Newark tap water — I don’t think it’s much cleaner!

Regardless of the recent history and controversy, this is an all-action match up. Pyfer has already rebounded from his first Octagon defeat, and for all his flaws, the man still hits like a mack truck. Gastelum is in the win column as well, and though his title dreams are far off at the moment, the veteran has at least settled into being a Middleweight once more.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Gastelum vs. Pyfer Betting Odds

Kelvin Gastelum victory: +300
Kelvin Gastelum via TKO/KO/DQ: +750
Kelvin Gastelum via submission: +250
Kelvin Gastelum via decision: +650
Joe Pyfer victory: -380
Joe Pyfer via TKO/KO/DQ: +250
Joe Pyfer via submission: +330
Joe Pyfer via decision: +150
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Gastelum Wins

Gastelum has a massive edge in experience here. The Southpaw has fought a “Who’s Who” of Welterweight and Middleweight contenders for more than a decade now. A talented wrestler with a piston of a left hand, Gastelum is at his best when mixing together his takedowns, low kicks and boxing.

Varied combinations and offering different looks will be important here. Pyfer hits tremendously hard and will have a significant size and reach advantage. If Gastelum tries to simply bounce in with the one-two combination, there’s a real chance that he gets blasted while moving forward.

He cannot afford to be predictable.

The silver lining for the underdog is that he should have a speed advantage. If he hides his one-two combination and takedown entries behind lots of feints and false starts, there’s a chance Gastelum can stay a step ahead of his opponent. Plus, we know Pyfer slows down over time, so that speed advantage would only grow as the rounds wear on.

How Pyfer Wins

Pyfer is a powerhouse who puts together lovely combinations. His footwork let him down against Jack Hermansson, but the 28-year-old still has many of the tools and traits one looks for in a future contender.

This bout should serve as an opportunity for Pyfer to demonstrate growth. Gastelum is too insanely durable for a quick knockout — could you imagine the scene if Pyfer pulled it off though?!? — so Pyfer’s ability to track down the former Welterweight will be tested here. Cutting the cage and herding Gastelum into shots will be key, because that’s how Pyfer makes the most of his power advantage.

Landing the right hand begins with landing the jab. I’d like to see Pyfer poking at Gastelum as he advances, using that rangefinder to get a sense of where Gastelum is going. Then, he’d be well-advised to follow the jab with body shots. Gastelum moves his feet and head well, but that torso is fridge-like and there to be hit.

If Pyfer is focused on making contact and staying in range to land, the big connections will come sooner than later.

Gastelum vs. Pyfer Prediction

I don’t trust Gastelum at this stage of the game. He’s only ever lost to excellent opposition, that remains true, but he’s done a lot more losing than winning in recent years. Worse still, the margins on his victories have grown increasingly small, as Chris Curtis and Daniel Rodriguez weren’t far off from the decision going their way.

More to the point, the size difference is going to be colossal. I would bet Pyfer is bigger than some 205-pounders on fight night, whereas Gastelum fought at Welterweight just 17 months ago. Every Pyfer punch is going to move Gastelum around in a major way … and that’s a bad look for the judges even if Gastelum’s concrete chin lets him survive the blows.