This weekend (Sat., June 27, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan for UFC Baku. As one would expect of a rare UFC visit to the Caucasus, local talent is likely to shine. All six of the main card matchups feature an “Ov” or “Ev,” and that pattern continues well into the undercard as well. Given the wealth of elite talent that tends to emerge from the the Caucasus, I’m going to offer an early prediction that the overall record of semi-local athletes is much better than recent visits to Canada or China.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:
Middleweight: Shara Magomedov (-340) vs. Michel Pereira (+240)
Best Win for Magomedov? Michal Oleksiejczuk For Pereira? Santiago Ponzinibbio
Current Streak: Both men won their last fight
X-Factor: Pereira is a wild card
How these two match up: This collision of strikers should entertain but would’ve been better two years ago.
Magomedov isn’t a perfect striker, but there’s a lot to like about “Bullet.” He throws an absurd amount of strikes and is able to maintain his pace, which is a rarity at 185 pounds generally. Better yet, Magomedov uses a lot of low kicks and body knees to break his foe down and further amplify his volume advantage. His ground game is mediocre, but again, this is Middleweight!
Pereira, meanwhile, has lost confidence lately. He’s known for his wild bursts of crazy offense, which may or may not include jumping strikes and backflips. After a few losses, however, Pereira has grown steadily more ordinary to his own detriment.
I am not in charge of the “Lock of the Week” column, but … this is my lock of the week! I really struggle to see Pereira winning this. Magomedov is historically durable, and Pereira isn’t really a one-shot knockout guy. Maybe Pereira finds a way to implement his jiu-jitsu edge, but he’s never been able to wrestle long without gassing out quickly.
Magomedov is simply much better and more active on the feet, and that’s where the fight is going to take place. Pereira has a few minutes to find some fight-changing shot, but his recent lack of aggression makes a fast finish unlikely as well.
Magomedov beats Pereira up at range and builds on his offense en route to a late stoppage.
Prediction: Magomedov via knockout
Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov (-260) vs. Matheus Camilo (+195)
Best Win for Sadykhov? Terrance McKinney For Camilo? Viacheslav Borshchev
Current Streak: Sadykhov lost his last bout, while Camilo rebounded
X-Factor: Camilo is just 25 years old
How these two match up: This looks like a solid rebound fight for Sadykhov, who recently lost for the first time as a UFC fighter.
Prior to getting manhandled by Fares Ziam, Sadykhov impressed in his first five UFC appearances, scoring four stoppage wins in that span. “The Black Wolf” is a slick striker with a great eye for openings, and generally, his wrestling and grappling have held up rather well. Camilo is an accurate striker as well, though he surprisingly turned to his wrestling last time out versus Borshchev. Given his age, “Jaguar” is understandably still improving fight-to-fight and can look a little green at times.
Composed and athletic, Camilo feels like a solid longterm prospect. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, Sadykhov is really sharp right now! He’s going to have the edge standing, and Camilo won’t be able to turn to takedowns like he did versus “Slava Claus.”
He’s outgunned everywhere and likely gets boxed up midway through the second.
Prediction: Sadykhov via knockout
Flyweight: Asu Almabayev (-260) vs. Charles Johnson (+195)
Best Win for Almabayev? Alex Perez For Johnson? Joshua Van
Current Streak: Almabayev won two in a row, while Johnson rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Johnson is fairly inconsistent
How these two match up: This is one of the best fights on the card.
Almabayev is a whirlwind of activity. He throws punches-in-bunches and lots of spin kicks to hide his takedown entries, which are relentless as well. He chains his shots together well and is usually successful in grounding his opposition, but as a smaller Flyweight, he struggles to do really damage his foes from top position.
Johnson, conversely, is one of the division’s larger and stronger fighters. He’s at his best when poking his opponents at distance with snap kicks and lining up big combinations, but he’s really comfortable everywhere. Historically, Johnson’s issues come against opponents who look to hold him down, which is how he lost to men like Ramazan Temirov and Cody Durden.
This is a complicated matchup even disregarding the fact that Johnson fights are always hard to predict. On one hand, Almabayev is a great wrestler who racks up lots of control time, and that’s how “InnerG” tends to lose fights. At the same time, Johnson is going to be so much bigger that holding him down will likely be a real challenge.
I expect Johnson gets up from a lot of takedowns and lands the more damaging blows on the feet. The question is how much of the clock will be eaten by Almabayev’s takedowns and control while Johnson fights hands and works back to his feet? This could end up a split-decision, but I’ll favor Almabayev simply for being more consistent and having the more proven ability to wrestle in round three.
Prediction: Almabayev via decision
Middleweight: Ikram Aliskerov (-265) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+200)
Best Win for Aliskerov? Jun Yong Park For Ferreira? Gregory Rodrigues
Current Streak: Aliskerov has won two in a row, while Ferreira lost his last bout
X-Factor: Ferreira is an explosive finisher
How these two match up: I don’t expect the judges to be necessary here.
Aliskerov is a heavy-handed combat Sambo ace who mostly uses his wrestling in reverse. The Southpaw maintains a high work rate and can definitely crack, but it was nice to see him mix in his offense takedowns last time out versus Park. If he can continue to put it all together, Aliskerov could be ranked in the Top 10 sooner than later.
Ferreira, conversely, is a bit of a glass cannon. He has huge power and unexpectedly dangerous submission skills, but Ferreira is also prone to running himself into nasty counter punches and will gas out terribly if forced to wrestle for too long. Still, the Brazilian deserves credit for being an outrageous hitter while standing a head shorter than most of his opposition.
Aliskerov is going to win almost every minute of this fight. He’s the cleaner striker, better wrestler, and has the better gas tank. The problem is that Ferreira only needs one big shot to drastically alter Aliskerov’s state of mind and undo all his good work. The first five minutes — or however long it takes Aliskerov to score a takedown — will be truly dangerous for the Russian standout.
After that? It should be smooth sailing.
Prediction: Aliskerov via submission
Middleweight: Abus Magomedov (-146) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+114)
Best Win for Magomedov? Brunno Ferreira For Oleksiejczuk? Marc-Andre Barriault
Current Streak: Magomedov lost his last bout, while Oleksiejczuk has won three straight
X-Factor: Oleksiejczuk is significantly smaller despite being the former Light Heavyweight
How these two match up: This is a great clash of styles.
Were it not for his infamous gas tank, Magomedov could be a top contender. He’s a really great kicker with solid power in his hands, yet Magomedov can grapple well too. His problem is that managing his cardio is a constant challenge: if forced to work hard, Magomedov declines severely in all aspects midway through round two.
Oleksiejczuk is another very talented yet very flawed fighter. On the positive side of the equation, Oleksiejczuk has very fast hands and is likely the division’s best body hitter. Unfortunately, he’s probably a natural Welterweight and has never spent much time developing his defensive grappling, so his ground game remains a liability.
First off, let me tip my hat to the UFC matchmakers: putting the division’s best liver shot artist versus Middleweight’s most tired man is very, very funny.
Anyway, this matchup has two very clear paths it could take. On one hand, Magomedov might muscle Oleksiejczuk to the floor and submit him inside a few minutes. Given his size advantage and ground prowess, he might well make it look easy. Conversely, Oleksiejczuk could shuck off and/or survive some takedowns and then have a field day ripping apart Magomedov’s mid-section once Magomedov’s feet slow down.
I like the (minor) underdog here. Oleksiejczuk has definitely improved under the tutelage of The Fighting Nerds team, and Magomedov has a very limited amount of time to take advantage of the grappling. By round two (if it lasts that long), Oleksiejczuk is going to be pressuring him to the fence and landing at will.
A left uppercut/hook to the liver ends it around the eight minute mark.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via knockout
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2026: 34-18 (1)
To checkout the latest UFC Baku fight card and rumors click here.
