We’re taking a look at the Premier League relegation favourites to see how likely each are to stay up given their current points tally.
It’s been a difficult season so far for each of the current bottom three.
West Ham, Burnley and Wolves are all locked in a fight for survival.
With 17 games played, we are just under halfway through the campaign.
But despite the dire situations at each club, none of the bottom three can be mathematically relegated any time soon.
If any or all of them were to suddenly find form and win the majority of their remaining 21 games, they would almost certainly survive with ease.
But how possible is that in reality?
To find out, we have taken a look through the history books to find out the clubs with the lowest points tally after 17 games in each Premier League season that went on to survive relegation.
Premier League Relegation Battle As It Stands
Since the Premier League went to a 38-game season in 1995-96, there have been some remarkable relegation battles.
Final day theatrics and great escapes have gone down in folklore at their respective clubs.
But there is a bigger gap between 17th and the rest than ever before.
Looking at the current standings, all three of the current teams in the drop zone are at least five points from safety.
THE PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION BATTLE
With Leeds United and, in particular Sunderland, well over-performing pre-season expectations, we could see newly-promoted clubs stay up in the top flight
Following Leeds United’s impressive 4-1 win over Crystal Palace, they… pic.twitter.com/e4JlnvSr6F
— The92Bible (@The92Bible) December 24, 2025
Current Bottom Three Points Totals:
- West Ham – 13pts
- Burnley – 11pts
- Wolves – 2pts
None of the bottom sides have won in the last six Premier League games.
And With Nottingham Forest winning three in that time under the management of relegation specialist Sean Dyche, that bottom trio are in danger of being cut adrift.
But it’s not over yet, and history proves the situation is far from unsalvageable – at least for two of the bottom teams.
What Is The Lowest Points Total At Christmas To Survive Relegation?
Looking back at previous seasons, the bottom three at Christmas is rarely the same come the final day.
Due to varying schedules, Christmas Day itself hasn’t always fallen during the same match week of the Premier League season.
So in the interest of fairness, we have taken week 17 of each season, to match the current situation for this campaign.
On that basis, the lowest points total after 17 games for a team that has gone on to stay up is 10.
Six different teams have survived Premier League relegation (38 game seasons) after winning just 10 points from their opening 17 games.
The first of these sides was Southampton in 1998-99, with Nottingham Forest achieving the same great escape in 2023-24.
Southampton icon Matt Le Tissier helped them survive many near-relegations in the 1990s.
Middlesbrough also survived in 2000-01 with just 11 points after 17 games.
But it’s the 12-point mark where we see a big jump in survival rate.
Twelve points at this stage would have been enough for survival in 15 of the last 30 seasons.
And 13 points would see teams survive in 19 seasons, while 14 points has been enough in 25/30 campaigns.
Still Hope Of Survival For West Ham And Burnley
Given their current situations, both West Ham and Burnley fans are rightly worried.
They are five and seven points from safety respectively, and in worse form than 17th-placed Forest.
But hope is not lost just yet.
West Ham’s 13 points at this stage would be enough to keep them up in 19 of the last 30 seasons.
The festivities are over.
A crucial run of games is upon us.
Fulham (h) Sat 27th Dec
BHA (h) Tues 30th Dec
Wolves (a) Sat 3rd Jan
Forest (h) Tues 6th JanThere has NEVER been a bigger gap (5pts) between 17th and the bottom 3 at Xmas in the PL.
Time to stand up and be counted. pic.twitter.com/4l7Bmt8qg4
— Central (@WestHam_Central) December 26, 2025
Burnley’s tally of 11, meanwhile, would still be enough for survival in seven of those campaigns.
A strong January transfer window, coupled with a few results going their way, could easily see either side out of the drop zone.
West Ham are closing in on Artem Dovbyk from Roma, so it’s clear they haven’t given up yet.
It will still be tough for either side to survive, but it is not yet into ‘improbable’ territory.
Wolves Are All But Mathematically Relegated Already
But when we look back at the history books, one thing becomes clear.
Wolves, with two points from 17 games, have zero chance of survival.
They are well on track for the lowest points total in Premier League history.
That record, set by Derby County in 2007-08, has looked unbeatable for many years.
No team has ever had fewer points than #Wolves (2 points) after 17 games in all four English football league divisions since 1888.
via @SkySports | #WWFC pic.twitter.com/zCalkksqEa
— Talking Wolves (@TalkingWolves) December 20, 2025
But even they had six points after 17 games – three times as many as Wolves have now.
Wolves are looking like the worst team in Premier League history, by some distance.
No team has come remotely close to staying up from where they are now.
Already 16 points adrift, winning their next six games on the bounce would probably still not be enough to lift them out of the bottom three.
It would take a realistically impossible turnaround in form for Wolves to even mount a serious survival bid, let alone actually stay up.
